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Tallying Tomorrow's Consumers: World Population Growth Sets a Slower Pace
For U.S. agriculture, global
population growth is both a source of confidence in long-term
trade prospects, and a source of concern about future world food
security. How fast is population growing? According to the U.S.
Census Bureau's latest estimates, the global head count (now near
5.9 billion) is increasing at a rate of 8,900 people an hour,
nearly 214,000 a day and 78 million this year. World population
reached the 3-billion mark in 1959, 4 billion in 1974 and 5
billion in 1987. It is currently projected to top 6 billion in
1999, 7 billion in 2012, 8 billion in 2026 and 9 billion around
2043. Although their underlying assumptions could change, Census
Bureau demographers see world population totaling roughly 9.3
billion by the middle of the next century, given present trends.
Population growth continues,
but at a slowing rate. Current trends suggest a net increase of
about 3.2 billion people between 2000 and 2050--a lot of new
mouths to feed, but less than the 3.5-billion increase from 1950
to 2000. Expressed in percentages, the difference is dramatic: a
projected gain of slightly over 50 percent in the first half of
the next century, compared with 138 percent over the last
half-century. Annual population growth, which averaged 2 percent
in the 1960s, is now near 1.3 percent and could drop below 1
percent after 2015. If the slowing continues, global population
may approach the replacement rate, or zero net growth, by the end
of the 21st century. Had the high growth rates of the 1960s
persisted, population already would top 6 billion and would be
climbing toward more than 18 billion by 2050.
Slowing growth rates have now
reached the point where the number of people added to world
population each year is dropping. In the 1980s, net population
growth peaked at an average 82 million a year (more than 85
million from 1985 to 1989). The Census Bureau estimates that
around 78 million people will be added this year, and the
downward trend is expected to continue. Factors contributing to
slower growth include declining birth rates in populous South
Asia and other areas; the impact of AIDS in raising mortality
rates, especially in Africa; stable to declining populations in
Europe; and higher mortality/lower birth rates in the former
Soviet Union. Urbaniza-tion may also be contributing because of
better educational opportunities and greater access to family
planning services in cities.
Most of today's population
increases are occurring in the less developed parts of the world,
where growth rates--though slowing--remain relatively high. From
1997 to 2025, global population is projected to expand by
slightly over 2 billion people. Less developed countries will
account for nearly all (98 percent) of that growth. The combined
populations of the more developed nations (United States, Europe,
Japan, Canada, and so on) will increase by only around 40 million
during that same period. About 80 percent of the world's people
currently live in less developed countries. Given the
disproportionate rates of growth, this figure is projected to
rise to 85 percent by 2025.
Regionally, Asia is likely to
contribute more than half of the total growth in world population
over the next quarter-century--or an additional 1.1 billion
people. This increase, however, is consistent with Asia's current
share of global population. The same proportionality does not
apply to some other regions. By 2025, populations are projected
to grow more than 80 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa and around 74
percent in the Near East/North Africa. As a result, Sub-Saharan
Africa--with only 10 percent of global population today--may add
487 million people, or close to a fourth of total world
population growth. The Near East/North Africa--with just 5
percent of the world's people--could grow by 222 million,
contributing more than a tenth of the global gain.
Census Bureau country
projections suggest that, by 2025, India will edge past China,
becoming the world's most populous nation. The list of countries
with populations of 100 million or more is expected to expand by
half, with the addition of Mexico, the Philippines, Iran, the
Congo (Kinshasa) and Vietnam. Among today's top 10, the two
fastest growing countries are Nigeria and Pakistan. Over the next
quarter-century, Nigeria's population could increase by 90
percent and Pakistan's by 60 percent. Among the countries
reaching 100 million by 2025, the Congo (Kinshasa) may grow 122
percent and Iran 66 percent. Over this same period, U.S.
population is expected to increase 25 percent to 335 million,
while numbers in Japan and Russia may drop slightly.
Visit the Census Bureau's Web site at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html for more world population information.
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