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How Exports Are Faring in ASEAN’s Rough Waters
| From 1990 to 1996, U.S. agricultural exports to the 10 current members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)1 raced ahead, gaining $2 billion or 160% in six years. Booming economies, rising incomes, changing tastes and market reforms spurred demand for imported foods and farm products in most countries of the region. However, import demand went into full retreat after the Asian financial crisis swept through in mid-1997, bringing sharp recessions, rising unemployment, financial uncertainties and steep currency devaluations that pushed up import prices. U.S. exports tumbled more than a third over the next two years, falling from a record $3.2 billion in 1996 to $2.1 billion last year. Although recovery may take time, the mid-1990's stand as a reminder of the dazzling market potential of this region. |  |
| The Philippines ranks as our largest market in the region in most years, followed closely by Indonesia. U.S. agricultural exports to the Philippines totaled $713 million last year, down from a record $888 million set in 1996. Exports to Indonesia slumped to $454 million, off 47% from the 1996 record of $851 million. Exports to Thailand peaked at $591 million in 1995 and then dropped steadily to $412 million over the next three years. From 1996 to 1998, sales to Malaysia declined by more than half from $612 million to $281 million. In Singapore, our 1998 exports were off about 30% from their 1995 high of $293 million. USDA export credit guarantees for sales to Indonesia and Thailand and P.L. 480 concessional sales to Indonesia and the Philippines helped support shipments to the region in 1998. |  |
| Bulk and intermediate products tend to dominate U.S. agricultural exports to the ASEAN countries. With the Philippines, for example, wheat and other bulk commodities accounted for nearly half of total U.S. export value in 1998–and even more in the two prior years. Soybean meal and other intermediate products accounted for another third of the total, leaving consumer foods with the smallest share. Indonesia, a major soybean and cotton customer, presents an even more lopsided picture, although consumer foods took an especially hard hit in 1998. At the other extreme is the region’s most affluent market, Singapore. There, consumer foods dwarf the other two categories, with more than two-thirds of total U.S. agricultural sales in recent years. |  |
| Fresh fruit, processed fruits and vegetables, dairy products, snack foods and red meats and poultry are among the leading U.S. consumer food exports to the ASEAN region. The populous Philippines rivals wealthy but tiny Singapore as the big buyer in this category. Even though consumer foods have only a 20-25% share of our exports to the Philippines, this still adds up to a lot of groceries–$130-$200 million and up a year. Before the financial crisis, U.S. consumer food exports to the region were rising rapidly–up 87% to the Philippines, 53% to Malaysia and 97% to Indonesia between 1994 and 1997. Among smaller ASEAN markets, sales to Vietnam climbed more than 300% to $12.5 million over the same period, before declining moderately to $11 million last year. |  |
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1/ ASEAN members are Brunei, Burma, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand
and Vietnam.
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