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Who’s Coming to Dinner: How Global Population Is Growing
If the world seems more crowded, that’s because it is.
Agriculture entered the 21st century with 6 billion
people to feed, up a billion since 1987 and twice as many as in
1960.
In a little more time than it takes to watch a half-hour TV sitcom, Planet Earth will make room for another 5,000 inhabitants. By mid-century, more than 9 billion people will be coming to the global table, according to U.S. Census Bureau demographers.
Projections would have been much higher had population growth not eased so dramatically. Average growth rates–which topped 2% a year in the 1960s–are now down to 1.26% and still slowing. Primary reasons: falling fertility rates in developing countries as they move up the economic ladder, population declines in Europe, and rising mortality rates in Africa related to the spreading AIDS epidemic.
U.S. population, now estimated at 276 million, is also on the rise–expected to increase by some 128 million or 47% by 2050. But for every 100 additional Americans, the global citizenry will grow by around 2,400, based on current trends.
Where will agriculture’s new global customers live? Increasingly, they will live in cities as urban migration continues–and especially in the teeming cities of south Asia and Africa. Because most of the population gains will occur in the poorer parts of the world, the demand implications of this growing customer base will depend on the success of policies within and among countries to promote economic development, income growth and freer trade.
Historical estimates suggest that it took until 1804 for world population to reach 1 billion. It took another 123 years for the second billion, but less than 75 years to add 4 billion more.
The Census Bureau projects about 9.1 billion people by 2050, though the growth rate by then is expected to be down to a third of today’s rate.
In 1950, less developed countries accounted for about 68% of world population. The figure topped 80% this year and may reach 87% by 2050.
Forecasts show a reversal in the rural-urban balance, with more than 60% of the world’s people residing in urban areas by 2030.
North America’s share of total world population is expected to hold at about 8% between now and 2050. South America is likely to remain in the 5%-6% range. With birth rates below replacement levels, Europe’s share of world population may shrink by almost half, while Asia could add another 1.7 billion people to maintain its share at around 60%.
The big percentage change will be in Africa. There, population is expected to swell by 130% from 805 million to 1.85 billion. This would expand Africa’s share of the world total to 20% by 2050, up from just 13% today.
India will elbow aside China as the world’s most populous nation, and the number of countries with populations of 100 million or more may expand to 17 from 11 today. Among the top 10 countries in population, the United States is expected to remain at No. 3, but Russia and Japan may drop off the list, replaced by Ethiopia and Congo (Kinshasa).
Congo’s move into the top 10 is based on a projected 182 million people by 2050, up from 52 million today. Ethiopia may add another 124 million to its current population of 64 million. Nigeria, now in 10th place, is likely to become the world’s fifth most populous country, with more than 300 million people in an area roughly twice the size of California.
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