|
|
|
|
|
|
September 14, 2001
Summary
Corn production in the Horn of Africa
during the main 2001 growing season is expected to be average, largely due to
good rainfall in the crop regions (Figure 1)
offsetting poor rainfall in
the marginal agricultural lands. However, severe
drought has affected the pastoral regions of eastern
Ethiopia, northeastern Kenya, and southern
Somalia (Figure 2), where both pastoralist and
agro-pastoralists (producers with land in both pasture and field crops) are currently
facing an extremely difficult food situation and may require food aid.
Country-by-Country Breakdown
In Kenya, abundant rainfall in April favored planting and good
crop establishment,
but lack of rainfall
in June and July greatly reduced yields in the marginal
agricultural lands in the lowlands. Mid-season production estimates anticipated an above-average crop but poor rainfall in the later half of the season will probably
lower original estimates. In Ethiopia, an average harvest was
estimated for the secondary belg
rains harvest of June and July, and favorable rains early in the primary meher
season
(April-November) indicate average crop prospects.
In addition, good harvests in August and September are estimated in both southern and northern
Uganda, due to timely and well-distributed rainfall throughout the entire growing
season. However, the crop
harvest in the Sudan is estimated to be below average due to
pockets of drought and insecurity in the south, and large amounts of cropland
destroyed by floods along the Nile during late August.
In Somalia, the main Gu rains for 2001 arrived on scheduled
in late March, but below-normal rains during May and June contributed to below average harvests in August.
Figure 2. Below average seasonal rainfall correspond to the pastoral regions.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, African Climate Products
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/threatsimage.html
Rainfall Estimates and Long-term Rainfall Averages for Africa
http://edcintl.cr.usgs.gov/adds/data.php
http://cres.anu.edu.au/outputs/africa.html#climate
http://vf-tropicom.freehomepage.com/
FAO/GIEWS
http://www.fao.org/giews/english/giewse.htm
http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/basedocs/eafrbase.htm
USAID-FEWS
http://www.fews.net/
http://www.fews.org/horn/fewshorn.html
For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0134 or e-mail ReynoldsC@fas.usda.gov.
|
|
 |
|
| | Contact PECAD | FAS Home | USDA | | |