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September 28, 2001
China is expected to produce a bumper cotton crop in 2001/02 due to increased planted area and near-record estimated yield. Cotton production is currently estimated at 23.0 million bales (5.0 million tons), up 13 percent from last year and the largest crop since 1991/92. Planted area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, up 20 percent from last year and up 29 percent from 1999/00. In two years, cotton area in China has increased by more than 1 million hectares, with the greatest area expansion taking place in the traditional cotton-growing provinces of eastern China. The estimated yield of 1043 kilograms per hectare is above the 5-year average and second only to last year's record yield.
(1995 - 2000 Average)
Weather Summary
Eastern China experienced periods of drought during the 2001/02 growing season, but timely rainfall and supplemental irrigation provided adequate moisture for the developing crop. Current weather is favorably warm and dry for cotton harvesting, which started in late-August and will continue through October. Unseasonably cool and damp weather in September may have caused some yield losses in northern Xinjiang, but a very good crop is expected from southern Xinjiang, which had normal weather this year.
See Weather Graphs for more details.
Cotton Area Rebounding
Between 1995 and 1999, cotton area in China dropped by more than 30 percent to a record-low 3.7 million hectares. The reduction occurred for a number of reasons, including relatively-low domestic cotton prices and government polices that favored grains and other crops over cotton. Area declined in every province except Xinjiang during the period, especially in Henan and Hebei provinces. (Provincial cotton area graph) The record-low area in 1999/2000 pulled production down to a disappointing 17.6 million bales (3.83 million tons) despite above average yields.
In 2000, rising cotton prices and changing government policies led farmers in eastern China to reduce grain area (primarily corn) and shift back into cotton.. Area increased by 9 percent to 4.0 million hectares, and record yields raised production by 15 percent to 20.3 million bales (4.42 million tons). Positive returns from the 2000/01 crop encouraged farmers to expand 2001/02 cotton area by 20 percent to 4.8 million hectares, the highest since 1995/96. Xinjiang area remained stable at about 1.0 million hectares, while Henan, Shandong, and Hebei reported a significant increase.
Yield Trend is Positive
With few exceptions, provincial cotton yields have been trending upward during the 1990's. Yields are highest in Xinjiang, where the climate and soil conditions are nearly ideal for cotton production. In eastern China, the widespread adaptation of insect-resistant and GMO varieties in recent years has reduced yield losses and increased the profitability of cotton production. However, weather can still be a determining factor. In 1998, severe flooding in the Yangtze River valley dramatically lowered cotton yields in Hubei, while a serious drought in 1999 cut yields in Shandong province. Although drought had a negative impact on the 2000/01 grain crop in northern China, the weather in the major cotton-growing regions was favorable and yield hit a record 1105 kilograms per hectare.
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For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
