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29 October 2001
Winter Grain Plantings in Eastern Europe:
Poor Situation in Bulgaria and South and East Romania; Good Conditions in Northern Countries
Current Conditions Summary:
A very dry October throughout Eastern Europe has raised concerns for winter grain in the Balkans as autumn planting operations wind down. While northern countries in Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) have experienced an average or a seasonal surplus of moisture, the southern countries have little subsurface moisture to draw from during winter grain establishment. Although September brought 150 - 200 percent of average rainfall for much of Eastern Europe, Bulgaria saw much less of this total. It is doubtful that the recent September moisture did much to aide the long term lack of water in the south-eastern Europe. The highly anticipated rainfall was far too little to recharge moisture reserves after more than two years of drought in the southern Balkans.
Poor Start to Season in Southern Balkans
Particularly hard hit during the dry 2001 summer were the eastern regions of Romania and Bulgaria (known as Dobruja). No measurable rainfall occurred during the months of July and August, crippling the almost completely rain-fed corn and sunflower crop. Agriculturally, this area (also a very large wheat and barley producer), is suffering under the harshest conditions in Eastern Europe at the onset of the winter cropping season.
After failure of summer crops, it was expected that farmers in eastern regions would shift to more "climatically-friendly" winter grains, thereby avoiding summer crops that require significant quantities of moisture during the driest time of the year. However, with a severe lack of ground moisture this fall, it is questionable as to the amount of area planted to winter grains. Another region of rising concern is further west of Dobruja, running along the border of Bulgaria and Romania. This area encompasses both sides of the Danube River and is a large corn, wheat, and sunflowerseed producer. Winter grains planted along the plains of the Danube are also in need of soaking rains to recharge depleted moisture reserves. Farmers report very dry soil, making fall planting difficult and costly. Additionally, reduced liquidity for small and medium- sized farmers in many areas arising from the drought- reduced crop last year combine to make fall planting even more challenging. Early estimates in Bulgaria call for area planted to be down 10 - 20 percent.
Good Prospects for North-East Europe
Areas in north-eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Serbia, and Hungary) have seen beneficial, dry weather in early October after heavy rains saturated the land in September. The warm, dry weather in the first three weeks of October should have allowed rapid winter grain planting and early development. Much of Poland received 225% of normal precipitation during the month of September while receiving only 30 percent of normal during the first three weeks of October. Similarly, heavy precipitation followed by October dryness in the intensively cultivated region of Voijvodina, Serbia should prove conducive for winter grain establishment and development. While rainfall quantities diminish in southern areas, seasonal totals throughout most of Hungary were average this season, but after a drought last year, subsoil moisture is still a concern.
Precipitation and Soil Moisture Details:
Cumulative precipitation in Dobruja (Black Sea Coast of Bulgaria and Romania), This area was the location most affected by the summer drought in 2001. The cumulative rainfall graph shows that rainfall was significantly lower than normal (the gray line) but was still more than last season. Depicted on the graph, the only measurable increase in precipitation since early July took place during the month of September.
Cumulative precipitation along the border of Romania-Bulgaria A fragile condition exists along the plains of the Danube River. Rainfall in the Walachian Plain in Romania (region around Bucharest) and the adjacent areas in Bulgaria was adequate (but minimal) during the summer and an average crop was harvested. However, the area is currently teetering on the limits of soil moisture necessary for crop germination and establishment. Rainfall was nominally better than the region immediately to its east (Dobruja) but sub-surface moisture has still lagged far behind normal. September rains have not come close to replenishing minimal supplies. Rainfall will be critical before the onset of winter to ensure development, but only 25 percent of normal rainfall has occurred in this region during the past 30 days.
Three-month seasonal precipitation (July - September) shows above average precipitation (largely a function of the September weather) for almost the entire area of Eastern Europe with one noticeable exception: southeastern Romania and northeastern Bulgaria. Aggregate precipitation amounts for the month of September show significant rainfall (above average) across every country except Bulgaria - specifically northeastern Bulgaria where large quantities of wheat are typically grown. Rainfall data for the first ten days of October shows no precipitation south of Poland and the Czech Republic. The second 10 days (11-20) of October also show practically no precipitation anywhere.
Soil moisture levels continue to remain extremely low in the southern countries of Eastern Europe. After over two years of excessive dryness, yearly comparisons of Balkans soil moisture levels have become an exercise in relative severity. Nevertheless, in comparing drought years, Romania and Bulgaria remain the countries of most concern, with eastern regions near the Black Sea flagged as being in the worst shape. Additionally, areas of severe dryness extend westward from the Black Sea along the Danube River.
Subsoil moisture is also very dry in both Romania and Bulgaria. A subsoil moisture map revels that the concentration of "dryness" has shifted further east than last year. The entire country of Bulgaria is low in subsoil moisture. To a much lesser extent, Hungary also appears to be in need of replenishing rains.
Little surface moisture remains in the southern Balkans after practically no precipitation fell during the first three weeks of October. Recent rains (October 23rd) in the Danube Delta dropped 25 mm of rain in Tulcea, Romania, but most stations in Dobruja recorded far less rainfall. The localized rains on October 23rd are not represented on this map.
The map showing percent soil saturation of surface and subsurface soil moisture is probably most telling of where problems exist because it factors in both levels of soil moisture, the current (topsoil) and the reserves (subsoil). East and south Romania, and northern Bulgaria appear to be in the poorest condition. Parts of Hungary are also highlighted as potential problems as the dryness has recently migrated farther north.
Recent cold air invaded during the fourth week of October from the northeast into much of Eastern Europe (particularly eastern regions), pushing minimum temperatures to 5 below Celsius and even colder in some localities.
Additional Data:
Current Weather in Eastern Europe
For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138. email: purcellb@fas.usda.gov
