November 15, 2002

Afghanistan: Grain Production Recovers After Three Years of Drought

Improved weather during the 2002/03 winter and summer seasons contributed to a recovery in Afghanistan’s grain output in key growing areas, following three years of drought.  The 2003/04 crop season began with planting of winter grains in October.  Early indications point to  continued improvement of growing conditions in the northern provinces.  The southern and southeastern provinces reflect very dry conditions, similar to the start of last year’s winter grain season.

Summary of the 2002/03 Season

Analysis of conditions in the western and eastern production zones indicated improved rainfall and vegetation health primarily in the northern provinces of the western production zone.  The western zone accounts for about 65 percent of  wheat production, nearly 81 percent of the barley, 60 percent of the rice, and 45 percent of the corn.  About 85 percent of the rain-fed wheat and 50 percent of the irrigated wheat are grown in the provinces within the western zone.

The winter season’s rainfall total for the western zone was only slightly higher than the previous year’s.  More importantly though, the rainfall was timely and well-distributed in the northern growing areas boosting wheat and barley production levels over the drought-diminished harvests of the previous three years.  1998 was the last year of near normal production.  Vegetation index (NDVI derived from AVHRR-GAC satellite imagery) analysis, reported in July 2002, confirmed the year-to-year improvement in vegetation health/density in the agricultural areas of most northern provinces.  (See the complete July 25, 2002 Report.)  The eastern zone was drier than last year, receiving less than 40 percent of normal rainfall for the winter season.  NDVI showed year-to-year declines or minimal to no improvement in vegetation health in the eastern zone growing areas.

Summer grains, predominantly irrigated rice and corn, also benefited from improved moisture and growing conditions compared to last  year.  This was apparent in NDVI analysis for the summer growing season.  Cumulative NDVI in the western zone increased 30 percent over the previous two years, but remained below normal and below the last good production year of 1998.  The western zone received about three times more rain during the summer growing season than in the previous year.  Higher planted area, in addition to the favorable weather, raised estimated summer grain output in the western zone. In the eastern zone, drought persisted, reducing production potential for the fourth consecutive year.  Harvesting of summer grains is generally complete by October. 

Current Growing Season

Prospects for the 2003/04 winter grains are positive, in light of last season’s recovery in production and an end to the drought in the northern provinces.  Winter grains are planted in September and October.  Planted area is expected to be similar to or slightly higher than last year.  Poppy production remains an attractive alternative crop because of high returns.  The Food and Agriculture Organization/World Food Programme (FAO/WFP) estimated that area planted to poppies last season was close to 90,000 hectares, thereby reducing irrigated wheat area by 10 percent. 

Less vegetation is present and little vegetative growth occurs during this time of year.  However, early season vegetation health indicated by recent NDVI shows improvement over last year in the western zone, possibly due to improved moisture reserves.  Western zone NDVI for the beginning of the season is closer to normal this year than in the previous two years.  Moisture and vegetation conditions in the south and southeastern provinces that comprise the eastern zone are similar to or worse than last year at this time.  Rainfall is only about 55 percent of normal for this time of year.  September and October are typically among the driest months of the year in Afghanistan. Production will depend on growing conditions throughout the remainder of the season, and especially on moisture availability during the critical reproductive to grain-filling stage in the spring.  The winter grains are harvested in June and July, with the higher elevations finishing last.

Food Security

Despite the overall increase in domestic grain production in 2002/03 and expected similar to higher output for 2003/04, the grain supply remains inadequate.  The FAO/WFP projected a 1.38 million ton import requirement (28 percent of total demand) for 2002/03.  A 2002 "Vulnerabilty Analysis and Mapping (VAM) Survey" by WFP noted food insecurity persists throughout much of the country.  An estimated four million people in rural areas facing food shortage this coming year.  Food security improved in areas that experienced more favorable weather and increased food production this past season.  Of greatest concern are the eastern and southern provinces, where the continuing drought prevents sufficient production and has depleted the water table causing a water shortage crisis.

Sources and Related Links:

FAO/WFP, August 16, 2002.  Special Report, FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to Afghanistan.

WFP, WFP Afghanistan Quarterly Report, July-September 2002.

2002 Afghanistan Situation Updates By PECAD:

July 2002 Update: /pecad2/highlights/2002/07/afg_season020722/index.htm

June 2002 Update: http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2002/06/afg0205/index.htm

March 2002 Update: http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad2/highlights/2002/03/afghan1/index.htm

Additional updates from 2001 and earlier can be found at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad/archives/2002_archives.html

For Weather and Vegetation Index Monitoring Products for Afghanistan and worldwide, click on CROP EXPLORER at http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad/

For more information, contact Maria Anulacion of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at 202-690-0139.