November 22, 2002

Indonesia: Rain on Java

Main-Season Rice Planting Resumes

Daily Rainfall Since September 1

Rainfall on the Indonesian island of Java has been very scarce for the last few months.  However, the past three weeks have brought some relief, according to daily precipitation data.

Sub-national, Seasonal Production Statistics

Over half of all rice grown in Indonesia is grown on Java (see Table 1), which is also where most of the population lives.  The months of July, August, and September are typically dry, but the lack of rain into October was beginning to cause concern in Indonesia, the world's largest rice importer.  Main-season rice, harvested between January and April, usually comprises half of the total rice production (see Table 2).  Java produces the majority of main-season rice.  A delay in the onset of the rainy season is usually not a problem, but if the dryness persists through November and into December, a decrease in production is possible.

USDA-FAS Rice Statistics for Indonesia

Rice production during the 2002/03 marketing year (beginning January, 2003) is forecast at 51.4 million tons unmilled basis, nearly the same as the previous two years (see Table 3).  In the wake of the 1997 El Nino event, domestic production dipped to nearly 49 million tons, and imports surged.  Currently a weak El Nino has been forecast by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, but it is too soon to know if it will have an effect on rice production.

GAC-NDVI (AVHRR-NOAA) Vegetation Departure from Normal

The vegetation condition in Java, a mountainous island formed by volcanic activity, is somewhat worse than normal, according to a recent satellite-derived index composite from the end of October.  This index is subject to interference from clouds, but the distribution of below normal vegetation across the archipelago is plausible considering the lack of precipitation (Maluku and Irian Jaya not shown).  Rainfall in the coming months could return conditions to normal on the eastern part of the island.

Links:

United States Department of Agriculture   
    Foreign Agricultural Service, Attache Reporting
        Indonesia Grain and Feed Rice Update, September 2002, GAIN Report #ID2028, 11/8/02
    Crop Explorer
    World Agricultural Production, November 2002
    Joint Agricultural Weather Facility

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center
        El Nino Update
        Cold and Warm Episodes by Season

For more information, contact Jim Tringe (james.tringe@fas.usda.gov)
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202)720-0882