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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
December 11, 2002
Winter wheat fields in parts of Ukraine and Russia likely suffered localized damage following two recent cold-weather episodes. In late November and early December, temperatures in some areas plunged to as low as minus 20 degrees Celsius for several consecutive days, cold enough to damage winter wheat in areas that had no protective snow cover. A large portion of Russia's prime winter wheat regions -- including Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov, and Volgograd oblasts -- had little or no snow cover during the first cold episode between November 30 and December 3. Snow-cover models and satellite imagery indicate that snow protection had improved somewhat in southern Russia by the time the second blast of cold air arrived on December 7, but crops in northern Krasnodar, western Rostov, and the southern Central district remained unprotected from temperatures that fell to damage-threshold levels through December 9. In eastern and southern Ukraine, where roughly one-half of the the country's winter wheat is grown, conditions were similar, with cold weather and little or no protective snow cover, but temperatures were not quite as low as in southern Russia. The weather was coldest in the east (in Kharkiv and Donetsk, for example), with temperatures as low at minus 20 degrees, but less severe in central and southern Ukraine. (At about the same time last year, Ukraine experienced even lower temperatures for a longer period of time, but wheat fields were protected by snow and little or no crop damage occurred.)
Winter barley is typically less resistant to extreme cold than is winter wheat, and likely suffered more extensive damage during the two cold-weather events. Winter barley is a high-yielding but relatively minor crop which is grown only in the extreme southern oblasts of each country. Area has increased in recent years, reaching approximately 550,000 hectares in Ukraine and 700,000 hectares in Russia.
According to the U.S. agricultural attaché in Kiev, winter grain area for 2003/04 is about the same as last season, when 8.6 million hectares (including 7.2 million winter wheat) were sown. Roughly 10 percent of last year's sown area needed to be replanted, but that was due largely to excessive fall dryness rather than cold weather. In Russia, sown winter grain area for 2003/04 reportedly dropped by approximately 2 million hectares from 16.1 million last year, according to Ministry of Agriculture figures. Roughly one million hectares of winter crops required replanting in Russia last year.
USDA estimates total Russian grain production for 2002/03 at 86.3 million tons, including 49.5 million wheat and 19.0 million barley. Ukraine total grain output is estimated at 39.1 million tons, including 21.0 million wheat, 10.5 million barley, and 4.0 million corn. Initial estimates of 2003/04 production will be released in May 2003.
